Why insure?
Ole Peters and Alex Adamou have written a paper titled Rational insurance with linear utility and perfect information. Here they consider the insurance puzzle, namely that people are willing to buy insurance at a price Read more →
Why cooperate?
Ole Peters and Alex Adamou have written a paper titled The evolutionary advantage of cooperation. Here they show how the simple and universal setting of noisy multiplicative growth predicts the formation of cooperating units Read more →
Data-driven prediction of thresholded time series of rainfall and self-organized criticality models
Together with co-authors with Anna Deluca and Álvaro Corral, Nicholas has studied the predictability of thresholded events in rain data and the Manna model. Specifically, a running hazard function is used as a decision variable Read more →
The perils of thresholding
Together with co-authors Francesc Font-Clos, Gunnar Pruessner and Anna Deluca, Nicholas has studied the effect of thresholding on birth-death processes. The exact distribution of the duration time above threshold can be computed. Read more →
Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind
Nicholas R. Moloney and Joern Davidsen have an article in Physical Review E on their analysis of extreme bursts in the solar wind: Read more →
Evaluating gambles using dynamics
Ole Peters’ and Murray Gell-Mann’s manuscript is now available as SFI working paper 14-05-013 and on the arXiv at http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0585 The paper presents the foundations of a possible new Read more →
Ergodicity Breaking in Geometric Brownian Motion
The paper by Ole Peters and Bill Klein is published in Physical Review Letters. It takes issue with the common but false assumption of ergodicity — the equality of time averages and expectation values Read more →
Information-theoretic model for communication
Ronald Dickman, Nicholas Moloney and Eduardo Altmann analyse an information-theoretic model for communication (introduced by Ferrer i Cancho and Solé), building on previous work by Read more →
Time, for a change.
Ole Peters’ Gresham lecture “Time, for a change” is now available online (audio, video, transcript). Some highlights from the lecture that may clarify a few comments we’ve received: Read more →
“Partial ensemble averages in geometric Brownian motion” submitted.
In this paper Ole Peters and Bill Klein clarify two important issues in geometric Brownian motion. They show analytically, using extreme-value theory, that the time-average growth rate for a finite ensemble is the same as Read more →
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