Mathematical models are everywhere, informing decisions in business and government such as how to adapt to climate change, how to set financial policies, or how to respond to a pandemic. But models are never perfect: the map is not the territory. Our research programme looks at the mathematical properties of models and model outputs, with the aim of shaping methods for making supportable statements about the real world based on evidence from models.
Some examples of our research topics
How can evaluation metrics account for imperfect models?
Combining information from non-independent models.
How to construct more diverse model ensembles.
Inference from model-statements to real world.
Statistical methods for model interpretation.
Alternative modelling approaches.
Escape From Model Land
Dr Erica Thompson joined LML to work on her book project from 2019-2022. Escape From Model Land was published by Basic Books (UK and US) in hardcover, audiobook and Kindle – paperback version to follow in 2023.
The intersection of this programme with our Ergodicity Economics theme, we have a long-standing interest in model evaluation using quantitative metrics (skill scores, loss functions, objective functions, etc).
This programme is seeking partnerships to develop our research themes.
If you’re interested, get in touch.