Satellite @ CCS’24 – Exeter, 3 September

This full-day satellite at the Conference for Complex Systems 2024 (CCS’24) explores the recent insights into the importance of ergodicity and ergodicity breaking in models of environmental economics and sustainability. We bring together top researchers and other experts for a discussion on environmental risks, methods for their valuation, governance of climate change, economics of sustainability and related issues.

Ergodicity breaking is an important theme in complexity theory. In non-ergodic systems, averaging over a probability space (expected value) and averaging over time lead to different results, which means that the trajectory of the individual through time departs systematically from the average path of the collective. Ergodicity breaking is particularly important when no collective exists and no approximation to a statistical ensemble can be made.

Climate change and the breaking of planetary boundaries can lead to irreversible changes in the biosphere, posing a fundamental risk to all human activity. The existence of tipping points and absorbing states such as irreversible damages and extinction imply ergodicity breaking in the ecosystem. The objective of this satellite is to foster a multidisciplinary discussion around the fundamental question: How does the non-ergodic nature of underlying ecological processes impact economic approaches to ecosystem services and the environment?

Satellite topics

The satellite focuses on the intersection between ecological and economic dynamical systems under uncertainty. The topics covered in the satellite include (but are not limited to) the following:

Climate and sustainability

  • Tipping points
  • Extinction risk
  • Ecosystems
  • Green transition
  • Technological innovation
  • Sustainable exploitation

Time and uncertainty

  • Ergodicity
  • Time averages
  • Stochastic processes
  • Temporal preferences
  • Growth rates
  • Stochastic control

Valuation and decision theory

  • Decisions under uncertainty
  • Path dependence
  • Risk of ruin
  • Econometric estimation
  • Optimal policies
  • Finance

Call for Abstracts

We invite abstracts of published and unpublished work for contributed talks to take place at the satellite. Please send your contribution using the link below.

  • Submission deadline: 30 June 2024
  • Notification of acceptance: 5 July 2024

Confirmed speakers

Full program TBA

Prof. Tim Lenton
University of Exeter

Prof. Steve Keen

Prof. William Hynes
World Bank, UCL, Santa Fe Institute

Prof. Ole Peters
London Mathematical Laboratory, Santa Fe Institute


This satellite workshop is a part of the Conference on Complex Systems 2024, taking place at the campus of the University of Exeter, 2 – 6 September.


To participate in this satellite, please register to CCS’24 (2-6 September, Exeter). General information about the CCS’24 can be found on the conference website.

Satellite committee

  • Emilie Rosenlund Soysal – LML
  • Oliver Bettis – Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
  • Colm Connaughton – LML, University of Warwick
  • William Hynes – World Bank, UCL, Santa Fe Institute
  • Ole Peters – LML, Santa Fe Institute

For more information about this satellite, please contact Emilie Rosenlund Soysal: e.soysal[at]