Over the past few years, extreme value theory (EVT) has increasingly found use in the analysis of dynamical systems, especially to quantify the probabilities of rare events, defined as visits to particular small subsets of the phase space. Read more

Many historians see great innovations as emerging from the genius and relentless hard work of individuals, yet attributing innovations to specific individuals is not always straightforward. Read more

The principles of control theory assert that feedback often leads to unstable behaviour and oscillatory dynamics. Examples include engineering systems such as thermostats and steering devices, as well as natural and biological systems. Read more

Many stochastic processes in natural and man-made systems exhibit occasional extreme events which are rare in comparison to usual outcomes. Though infrequent, such events can still carry decisive weight. Read more

Scientists and public health officials have relied on a variety of epidemiological models to forecast the trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic, and to derive guidance for policies aiming to avoid overloading health facilities. All such models contain parameters, and forecasting tools tend to choose these to provide a best fit to available observations. Read more