Extreme value distributions of observation recurrences

Over the past few years, extreme value theory (EVT) has increasingly found use in the analysis of dynamical systems, especially to quantify the probabilities of rare events, defined as visits to particular small subsets of the phase space. Read more

Localization and Universality of Eigenvectors in Directed Random Graphs

Many complex systems including neural networks, ecosystems, physical materials or the World Wide Web involve individual components which interact in large networks. Read more

Quantifying simultaneous innovations in evolutionary medicine

Many historians see great innovations as emerging from the genius and relentless hard work of individuals, yet attributing innovations to specific individuals is not always straightforward. Read more

A non‐parametric Hawkes process model of primary and secondary accidents on a UK smart motorway

In the United Kingdom, traffic accidents led to 1782 deaths and 25,484 serious injuries in 2018. In addition to these direct human costs, crashes, collisions and breakdowns also cause severe congestion leading to significant drops in road efficiency. Hence, there is an imperative to further reduce the accident rate on UK roads. Read more

Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control: the discontinuous case

The principles of control theory assert that feedback often leads to unstable behaviour and oscillatory dynamics. Examples include engineering systems such as thermostats and steering devices, as well as natural and biological systems. Read more

The universal pathway to innovative urban economies

As centres of human population and civilisation, cities have pushed the boundaries of human productivity and innovation. Read more

Extreme value theory for constrained physical systems

Many stochastic processes in natural and man-made systems exhibit occasional extreme events which are rare in comparison to usual outcomes. Though infrequent, such events can still carry decisive weight. Read more

Narrative structure of A Song of Ice and Fire creates a fictional world with realistic measures of social complexity

The global television hit Game of Thrones, first aired in 2011, was inspired by a series of fantasy books written by George R. R. Martin. Since publication in 1996, A Song of Ice and Fire has been translated into more than 45 languages, and established a unique niche in the world of storytelling. Read more

Using posterior predictive distributions to analyse epidemic models: COVID-19 in Mexico City

Scientists and public health officials have relied on a variety of epidemiological models to forecast the trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic, and to derive guidance for policies aiming to avoid overloading health facilities. All such models contain parameters, and forecasting tools tend to choose these to provide a best fit to available observations. Read more

Modeling the second wave of COVID-19 infections in France and Italy via a stochastic SEIR model

Late in the spring of this year, many nations around the world, especially in Europe, faced public health crises, as coronavirus infections threatened to overwhelm their intensive care facilities. Authorities responded with drastic measures to reduce social contacts, closing businesses and schools, restricting public transport and banning large social events. Read more