When Distance Drives Destination, Towns Can Stimulate Development

In most of the developing world, individual wealth tends to increase with city size, making migration an important avenue for poverty reduction. Read more

Risk is random: The magic of the d’Alembert

In 19th-century casinos, most common betting took the form of even-money bets placed on red or black in games such as Roulette. Strategy lay in deciding how much to wager on each bet, and when to quit playing. Read more

Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID 19 disease: the AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus appear, finally, to offer nations around the globe a pathway out of the COVID pandemic. Yet vaccines themselves come with potential risks of side-effects. In the aftermath of some three dozen or so cases of deaths from blood clots in recently vaccinated individuals, a handful of European nations recently paused their delivery of the AstraZeneca vaccine pending further study. Read more

Statistical Characterization of Airplane Delays

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, a major source of annoyance for international travelers was flight delays, caused by anything from engineering failures to simple traffic flow issues through the complex network of international airports. Read more

Analytic solution of the two-star model with correlated degrees

Network scientists rely on random graphs to model the behaviour of complex networks observed in social, technological, and biological systems. One common approach to such network modelling starts by measuring an empirical set of observables, and then builds an ensemble of random graphs to match these features in an average sense. Read more

Extreme value distributions of observation recurrences

Over the past few years, extreme value theory (EVT) has increasingly found use in the analysis of dynamical systems, especially to quantify the probabilities of rare events, defined as visits to particular small subsets of the phase space. Read more

Localization and Universality of Eigenvectors in Directed Random Graphs

Many complex systems including neural networks, ecosystems, physical materials or the World Wide Web involve individual components which interact in large networks. Read more

Quantifying simultaneous innovations in evolutionary medicine

Many historians see great innovations as emerging from the genius and relentless hard work of individuals, yet attributing innovations to specific individuals is not always straightforward. Read more

A non‐parametric Hawkes process model of primary and secondary accidents on a UK smart motorway

In the United Kingdom, traffic accidents led to 1782 deaths and 25,484 serious injuries in 2018. In addition to these direct human costs, crashes, collisions and breakdowns also cause severe congestion leading to significant drops in road efficiency. Hence, there is an imperative to further reduce the accident rate on UK roads. Read more

Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control: the discontinuous case

The principles of control theory assert that feedback often leads to unstable behaviour and oscillatory dynamics. Examples include engineering systems such as thermostats and steering devices, as well as natural and biological systems. Read more