Blog
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A non‐parametric Hawkes process model of primary and secondary accidents on a UK smart motorway
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In the United Kingdom, traffic accidents led to 1782 deaths and 25,484 serious injuries in 2018. In addition to these direct human costs, crashes, collisions and breakdowns also cause severe congestion leading to significant drops in road efficiency. Hence, there is an […]
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Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control: the discontinuous case
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The principles of control theory assert that feedback often leads to unstable behaviour and oscillatory dynamics. Examples include engineering systems such as thermostats and steering devices, as well as natural and biological systems.
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The universal pathway to innovative urban economies
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As centres of human population and civilisation, cities have pushed the boundaries of human productivity and innovation.
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Extreme value theory for constrained physical systems
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Many stochastic processes in natural and man-made systems exhibit occasional extreme events which are rare in comparison to usual outcomes. Though infrequent, such events can still carry decisive weight.
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Narrative structure of A Song of Ice and Fire creates a fictional world with realistic measures of social complexity
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The global television hit Game of Thrones, first aired in 2011, was inspired by a series of fantasy books written by George R. R. Martin. Since publication in 1996, A Song of Ice and Fire has been translated into more than 45 […]
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Using posterior predictive distributions to analyse epidemic models: COVID-19 in Mexico City
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Scientists and public health officials have relied on a variety of epidemiological models to forecast the trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic, and to derive guidance for policies aiming to avoid overloading health facilities. All such models contain parameters, and forecasting tools tend […]
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Modeling the second wave of COVID-19 infections in France and Italy via a stochastic SEIR model
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Late in the spring of this year, many nations around the world, especially in Europe, faced public health crises, as coronavirus infections threatened to overwhelm their intensive care facilities. Authorities responded with drastic measures to reduce social contacts, closing businesses and schools, […]
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Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
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Large earthquakes and the aftershocks they generate cause considerable damage to buildings. As a result, risk management, evacuation planning and rapid seismic loss estimation require good estimates of the cumulative damage likely to arise from an earthquake sequence. This is especially important […]
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Topological Comparison Between the Stochastic and the Nearest‐Neighbor Earthquake Declustering Methods Through Network Analysis
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On short timescales, earthquakes cluster in both time and space, eventually complicating the analysis of seismicity. One basic goal is to partition the earthquake catalogue into two classes of events — background events, regarded as spontaneous or independent earthquakes, and clustered events, […]
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The future of perovskite solar cells, optimal vaccine distribution, and how to discourage the spread of madness through social media.
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Here are links to a few recent articles by LML External Fellow Mark Buchanan.