EE Seminar #10: Aubrey Clayton – Teaching Probability Without Frequencies

In this seminar, Aubrey Clayton (author of Bernoulli’s Fallacy) introduces a framework for characterising probability without reliance on frequencies.

Statistics educators (even Bayesians!) have long struggled with the fact that no traditional definition of probability is adequate for all purposes. Sometimes probability more naturally means frequency while at other times it lends itself to an interpretation as a degree of belief. However, if the latter, then why should the numerical rules of probability hold? How do we know when a probability is wrong? In this talk, Aubrey will survey the acrimonious history of these foundational questions and propose a new approach to teaching probability-as-logic based on E.T. Jaynes’s principle of transformation groups.

This is an online event. We look forward to seeing you there!

This seminar is a part of the Ergodicity Economics Seminar Series. To receive invitations to future seminars sign up to our mailing list.