Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: Binary events in a low probability environment
Probabilistic earthquake forecasts can be used to estimate the chance of future earthquake hazards, or to model important risk quantities including the number of fatalities, damaged elements of infrastructure or economic losses. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global community initiative seeking to make research on earthquake forecasting more open and rigorous, pursuing these ends by comparing different forecasts in a competitive setting and basing judgements of accuracy and usefulness on objective grounds. Read more