Indian school

Economics lectures in India

Ole Peters delivered a set of lectures on economics at the complex systems winter school in Mohali, India.  The lectures were based on notes, co-authored with Alex Adamou, that will form the basis for future lecture courses. Read more

why insure

Why insure?

Ole Peters and Alex Adamou have written a paper titled Rational insurance with linear utility and perfect information. Here they consider the insurance puzzle, namely that people are willing to buy insurance at a price Read more

why cooperate

Why cooperate?

Ole Peters and Alex Adamou have written a paper titled The evolutionary advantage of cooperation. Here they show how the simple and universal setting of noisy multiplicative growth predicts the formation of cooperating units Read more

data driven prediction

Data-driven prediction of thresholded time series of rainfall and self-organized criticality models

Together with co-authors with Anna Deluca and Álvaro Corral, Nicholas has studied the predictability of thresholded events in rain data and the Manna model. Specifically, a running hazard function is used as a decision variable Read more

perils of thresholding

The perils of thresholding

Together with co-authors Francesc Font-Clos, Gunnar Pruessner and Anna Deluca, Nicholas has studied the effect of thresholding on birth-death processes. The exact distribution of the duration time above threshold can be computed. Read more

Nicholas R Moloney

Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind

Nicholas R. Moloney and Joern Davidsen have an article in Physical Review E on their analysis of extreme bursts in the solar wind: Read more


Evaluating gambles using dynamics

Ole Peters’ and Murray Gell-Mann’s manuscript is now available as SFI working paper 14-05-013 and on the arXiv at  The paper presents the foundations of a possible new Read more


Ergodicity Breaking in Geometric Brownian Motion

The paper by Ole Peters and Bill Klein is published in Physical Review Letters. It takes issue with the common but false assumption of ergodicity — the equality of time averages and expectation values Read more

Jstat image

Information-theoretic model for communication

Ronald Dickman, Nicholas Moloney and Eduardo Altmann analyse an information-theoretic model for communication (introduced by Ferrer i Cancho and Solé), building on previous work by Read more


Time, for a change.

Ole Peters’ Gresham lecture “Time, for a change” is now available online (audio, video, transcript). Some highlights from the lecture that may clarify a few comments we’ve received: Read more