Giant leaps and long excursions: fluctuation mechanisms in systems with long-range memory

Many random processes lack memory – that is, the probability distribution for change over any time interval depends on the present state of the process but remains independent of how it behaved previously. Read more

On the Computation of the Extremal Index for Time Series

Many insights have recently emerged from applications of extreme value theory to the study of time series generated by dynamical systems. Read more

What are we weighting for? A mechanistic model for probability weighting

It’s a common belief in areas such as psychology, economics or finance that people suffer from cognitive biases — systematic deviations from correct or rational behaviour when they make decisions. Read more