Analytic approach for the number statistics of non-Hermitian random matrices

The study of random matrices finds many important applications in physics, mathematics, biology, statistics and finance, as random matrix ensembles offer simple but nontrivial models of strongly correlated systems. Read more

Decision-making with distorted memory: Escaping the trap of past experience

Humans make decisions in part by drawing on their previous related experiences. But human memory isn’t exhaustive and complete. Read more

Synchronized and asynchronous modulation of seismicity by hydrological loading: A case study in Taiwan

Many distinct physical factors help trigger earthquakes, among them the loading of the earth’s crust by water. Many studies have demonstrated a seasonal modulation of seismicity linked to water forcing in volcanic areas, plate boundary zones and other regions. Read more

Urban Science: Integrated Theory from the First Cities to Sustainable Metropolises

The emergence of cities is a relatively recent phenomenon in human history. Their appearance in the archaeological record coincides with the advent of increasingly sedentary, agricultural, bureaucratic, and politically asymmetrical societies. Read more

Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary events in a low probability environment

Probabilistic earthquake forecasts estimate the spatial and/or temporal evolution of seismicity and offer practical guidance to authorities during earthquake sequences, especially following notable earthquakes. Read more

Root and community inference on latent network growth processes using noisy attachment models

Complex networks can be analysed using a variety of statistical models including classic Erdös–Rényi random graphs, latent space models, configuration graphs and others. These models generally specify some structure – arising from the existence of communities, for example – but the order in which the edges are added is of no importance. Read more

Detecting intense hurricanes from low resolution datasets via dynamical indicators

Tropical cyclones are among the most extreme and costly weather events. In the United States, hurricane Katrina in 2005 alone caused damage equal to roughly 1% of the country’s gross domestic product. Read more

Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short-Term Aftershock Forecast

Large earthquakes generate aftershocks, the spatiotemporal patterns of which reveal details of how the strain energy in the Earth’s crust relaxes following a main rupture. Prior research has established that aftershocks correlate with regions of low co-seismic slip – slip which occurs at the instant of an earthquake – and of increased shear stress. Read more

Magnetic reconnection, the existential risks of searching for alien civilizations and carbon emissions in Africa

Here are links to a few recent articles by LML External Fellow Mark Buchanan. Read more

Search efficiency of discrete fractional Brownian motion in a random distribution of targets

In foraging for food, biological organisms explore terrain in search of irregularly dispersed sources. Mathematically, such foraging processes can be modelled using stochastic processes, and in the simplest paradigm – Gaussian spreading generated by random walks or Brownian motion – the mean square displacement of an ensemble of moving agents grows linearly in time. Read more