According to current international regulation, financial institutions are obliged to calculate the risk in their trading book on the basis of expected shortfall (ES), a risk measure which aims to capture risk from rare, low-probability events more effectively than earlier measures.
A leading model in earthquake forecasting is the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which takes the times and locations of future aftershocks to depend on previous earthquakes, with more recent earthquakes exerting more influence than older events.
LML is delighted to announce that Yonatan Berman joins the Ergodicity Economics research programme as a Postdoctoral Fellow. Yonatan joins us from Paris School of Economics and has a PhD from Tel Aviv University.
Criminologists try to predict crime with a number of methods, such as “hot-spotting” – making maps of locations where crimes tend to occur – and epidemiological techniques based on the assumption that the local risk of crime rises temporarily after a crime occurs.
In 1975, Yoshiki Kuramoto introduced a simple model to describe the collective dynamics of a set of interacting oscillators. In the model, each oscillator has a natural frequency, and is coupled equally to all other oscillators.
How do animals move through their environment as they search for resources, or try to satisfy other natural goals? Over the past two decades, researchers have examined this question using real world data for organisms such as albatross, marine predators and bees, often finding a pattern of many short or mid-scale movements punctuated by occasional […]
Here are links to a few recent articles by LML Fellow Mark Buchanan.
Tectonic movements create stress within the Earth’s crust, which gets released in sudden earthquakes, but also in less dramatic slow slip events. Such events are sometimes accompanied by so-called non-volcanic tremors – weak seismic signals of extended duration along major faults.
In Southern California, Japan, Indonesia or other areas around the world prone to earthquakes, people at risk face vast uncertainty about when, where, and how strong the next one will be.
Early in the 20th century, experts tried to forecast the weather by noting current conditions, patterns of winds, temperatures and air pressures, and looking into historical records to find previous moments when similar conditions prevailed. Looking a few days forward in the records, they could then make predictions by assuming the atmosphere would evolve as […]
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