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Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: Binary events in a low probability environment

Probabilistic earthquake forecasts can be used to estimate the chance of future earthquake hazards, or to model important risk quantities including the number of fatalities, damaged elements of infrastructure or economic losses. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global community initiative seeking to make research on earthquake forecasting more open […]

Measuring Unfair Inequality: Reconciling Equality of Opportunity and Freedom from Poverty

Over the past few decades, rising income inequality has spurred debates around the world. While many call for policies to help redistribute wealth and counter inequality, others argue that inequality is actually necessary to both motivate and reward hard work and economic productivity. But, as LML Fellow Ravi Kanbur and colleagues argue in a recent […]

Inference on the History of a Randomly Growing Tree

The skeletal outlines of many natural processes resemble growing tree-like networks. Examples include the movement of a disease through a human community, news or rumours through social media or a computer virus through a web of connected computers. The elements in these networks correspond to nodes in the tree, and links or edges between nodes […]

Interview with LML Laboratory Director Colm Connaughton

As a new feature of the LML blog, I will be running a series of occasional interviews with some of the LML Fellows and other individuals linked to the laboratory. This is an interview with Colm Connaughton, current Laboratory Director, and also Director of the Centre for Complexity Science at Warwick University. Colm’s research interests […]

Interview with LML Fellow Davide Faranda

As a new feature of the LML blog, I will be running a series of occasional interviews with some of the LML Fellows and other individuals linked to the laboratory. This is a first interview with Davide Faranda, an expert in atmospheric dynamics and dynamical systems theory at the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Science […]

Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control: the discontinuous case

Since the early days of control theory,  engineers have understood that feedback can give rise to spontaneous and sustained oscillations. Examples abound in engineering systems such as thermostats and steering devices, as well as in natural and biological systems – for example, in homeostasis or diabetes in the human metabolism. Feedback-induced oscillations have also affected […]

The Long Run Evolution of Absolute Intergenerational Mobility

In the mid-20th century, many developed economies experienced several generations of high prosperity, with children generally earning higher incomes than their parents had at the same age. In economics, this is technically known as increasing absolute intergenerational mobility. For the United States, however, studies suggest that such mobility has more recently been falling. It decreased […]

Choice history effects in mice and humans improve reward harvesting efficiency

In foraging for food and other resources, animals have to make repeated choices about where best to search. Experimental studies of such decisions typically work with the simplifying assumption that animals’ past decisions should have no impact on the distribution of actual resources, which remains fixed. Many such studies have nevertheless found that animals’ current […]