## Jiancang Zhuang

### External Fellow

I am Associate Professor at the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, the Research Organization of Information and System, Japan. My main interests are statistical inference of point processes and its application in statistical seismology. I focus on constructing point-process models for describing and forecasting the process of earthquake occurrences. My research areas are recently extended to Bayesian analysis, data assimilation in geophysics, and criminology.

### Positions Held

**2017/07 – present**– External Professor, Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Seismological Bureau (location: Beijing, China)**2017/07 – present**– External Professor, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau (location: Beijing, China)**2017/10- present**– External Fellow, London Mathematical Laboratory**2011/04 – present**– Associate Professor, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo (location: Tokyo, Japan)**2011/04 – present**-Associate Professor, Department of Statistical Sciences, the Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI (location: Tokyo, Japan)**2007/06 – 2011/03**– Assistant Professor, Department of Statistical Sciences, the Graduate University for Advanced Studies (location: Tokyo, Japan)**2007/06 – 2011/03**– Assistant Professor, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo (location: Tokyo, Japan)**2006/04 – 2007/06**– Post-doctoral fellow at Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles (location: Los Angeles, CA, U.S.)**2003/04 – 2004/03**– Lecturer, Institute of Statistical Mathematics (location: Tokyo, Japan)**2004/04 – 2006/3**– JSPS (Japan Science Promotion Society) Post-Doctoral fellow at the Statistical Seismology Research Group, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. (location: Tokyo, Japan)**2003/03**– Ph.D., Statistics, the Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Japan**1993/07 – 1999/12**– Technician, Assistant Engineer and Engineer, Research Center of Explorative Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau (location: Zhengzhou, Henan, China)

### Additional Positions

**2014/1 – 2015/1**– Guest editor, Pure and Applied Geophysics, topical issue on “Current challenges in statistical seismology”**2012 -2017**– Associate editor, Journal of Geophysical Research**2011 – present**– Associate editor, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics**2019/4 – 2021/3**– Associate editor, Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics**2010/10 – 2011/12**– Guest editor, International Journal of Geophysics, special issue on “Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts”

### Selected Publications

- Jodie Buckby, Ting Wang, Jiancang Zhuang & Kazushige Obara (2020) Model Checking for Hidden Markov Models, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2020.174329
- Guo, Y., J. Zhuang, Y. Ogata (2019) Modelling and forecasting aftershocks can be improved by incorporating rupture geometry in the ETAS model. Geophysical Research Letters. 46, 12881-12889. doi:10.1029/2019GL084775.
- Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97: 369-380.
- Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, No. B5, B05301.
- Zhuang J., Chang C.-P., Ogata Y. and Chen Y.-I. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using a point process model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, B05S18.
- Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2006) Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks. Physical Review, E. 73, 046134.
- Ogata Y. and Zhuang J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension. Tectonophysics. 413(1-2), 13-23.
- Zhuang J. (2006) Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68 (4), 635-653.
- Vere-Jones D. and Zhuang J. (2008) On the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Physical Review E., 78, 047102.
- Zhuang J., Christophosen A., Savage M. K., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D. D. (2008) Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities. Journal of Geophysical Research. 113, B11302.
- Vere-Jones D. and Zhuang J. (2008) On the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Physical Review E., 78, 047102.
- Zhuang J., (2011) , Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model. Earth Planets Space, 63, 207-216.
- Zhuang J., Werner, M. J. and Harte D. S. (2013) Stability of earthquake clustering models: Criticality and branching ratios. Physical Review E., 88(6): 062109.
- Zhuang, J. (2015) Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes. Spatial Statistics. 14: 166-178.
- Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., and Zhou, S. (2015) An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering. Journal of Geophysical research, 120, 3309-3323.
- Guo, Y., Zhuang J., Hirata N., Zhou S. (2017) Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, 122, doi:10.1002/2017JB014064.
- Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016) Hidden Markov modelling of sparse time series from non-volcanic tremor observations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C. 66, 691–715.
- Zhuang, J., D. Wang, and M. Matsu’ura (2016) Features of the earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones’ branching crack model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 106: 1832-1839.
- Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata, and T. Wang (2017) Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters. Earth, Planets and Space, 69:36.
- Yang, H., Liu, Y., Wei, M., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2017) Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 60:1632-1644, doi:10.1007/s11430-017-9063-0.
- Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017) Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence. Geophysical Journal International. doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407.
- Opris, A., Enescu, B, Yagi, Y., and Zhuang, J. (2018) Triggering and decay characteristics of dynamically activated seismcity in Southwest Japan. Geophysical Journal International, 212: 1010-1021. doi:10.1093/gji/ggx456.
- Wang, Y., Wang, T., Zhuang, J. (2018) Modelling continuous time series with many zeros and an application to earthquakes. Environmetrics. 2018;29:e2500. doi:10.1002/env.2500.
- Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J., Jiang, C., Guo, Y., Gao, Z., Gao, S. (2018) Did the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake trigger the occurrence of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan, China? Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth.123: 2965-2983. doi:10.1002/2017JB015165.
- Zhou, Y. J., Zhou, S. Y., and Zhuang, J.C. (2018). A test on methods for MC estimation based on earthquake catalog. Earth and Planetary Physics, 2: 150-162. doi:10.26464/epp2018015.
- Guo, Y., J. Zhuang, and N. Hirata (2018) Modeling and forecasting 3D-hypocenter seismicity in the Kanto region. Geophysical Journal International, 214: 520-530. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy154
- Schorlemmer, D, M. J. Werner, W. Marzocchi, T. H. Jordan, Y. Ogata, D. D. Jackson, S. Mak, D. A. Rhoades, M. C. Gerstenberger, N. Hirata, M. Liukis, P. J. Maechling, A. Strader, M. Taroni, S. Wiemer, J. D. Zechar, and J. Zhuang (2018) The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters. 89 (4): 1305-1313. doi:10.1785/0220180053.
- Wang, T., J. Zhuang, J. Buckby, K. Obara, and H. Tsuruoka (2018) Identifying the recurrence patterns of non-volcanic tremors using a 2D hidden Markov model with extra zeros. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 123: 6801-6825. doi: 10.1029/2017JB015360.
- Chen, S., J. Zhuang, X. Li, H. Lu, W. Xu (2019) Bayesian approach for network adjustment for gravity survey campaign: methodology and model test. Journal of Geodesy. 93(5):681-700. doi:10.1007/s00190-018-1190-7.
- Zhuang J. (2018) Likelihood-based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott point processes. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 8(3): 1–15.
- Zhuang, J., M. Murru, G. Falcone, Y. Guo (2018) An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy from 2005 to 2016. Geophysical Journal International. 201:302-308. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy428.
- Zhuang, J., J. Mateu (2019) A semi-parametric spatiotemporal Hawkes-type point process model with periodic background for crime data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A. :182(3), 919-942. doi:10.1111/rssa.12429.
- Zhuang, J., T. Wang, K. Kiyosugi (2019) Detection and replenishment of missing data in marked point processes. Statistica Sinica. In press. doi:10.5705/ss.202017.0403.
- Zhou, P., Yang, H., Wang, B., & Zhuang, J. (2019). Seismological investigations of induced earthquakes near the Hutubi underground gas storage facility. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124: 8753-8770. doi:10.1029/2019JB017360.
- Shcherbakov, R., J. Zhuang, G. Zoeller, Y. Ogata (2019) Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake. Nature Communications, 10:4051. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4