A New Method for Imaging Seismic Quiescence and Its Application to the Mw = 8.3 Kurile Islands Earthquake on 15 November 2006

The seismic quiescence hypothesis asserts that the number of small earthquakes decreases in and around the focal area of a great earthquake near to its time of occurrence. Read more

Model checking for hidden Markov models

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) were first introduced in the late 1960s, and later applied widely in areas including speech recognition, bioinformatics, finance and seismology. Read more

The Echo Index and multistability in input-driven recurrent neural networks

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are non-autonomous dynamical systems driven by input, the behaviour of which depend on both model parameters and inputs to the system. Read more

The SAFER geodatabase for the Kathmandu Valley: Geotechnical and geological variability

The Kathmandu Valley — the most developed and populated region in Nepal – is seismically active and has experienced recurring destructive earthquakes. Read more

Nonstationary Background Seismicity Rate and Evolution of Stress Changes in the Changning Salt Mining and Shale-Gas Hydraulic Fracturing Region, Sichuan Basin, China

Many earthquakes have been induced by human activities, including wastewater disposal, geothermal production, gas injection and hydraulic fracturing (HF). Read more

Non-Equilibrium Dynamics and Weakly Broken Integrability

Scientists still lack a fundamental understanding of how and when complex many-body systems out of equilibrium will relax back to thermal equilibrium. Empirically, many systems do relax readily, justifying many of the core approximations of thermodynamics. Read more

Giant leaps and long excursions: fluctuation mechanisms in systems with long-range memory

Many random processes lack memory – that is, the probability distribution for change over any time interval depends on the present state of the process but remains independent of how it behaved previously. Read more

On the Computation of the Extremal Index for Time Series

Many insights have recently emerged from applications of extreme value theory to the study of time series generated by dynamical systems. Read more

What are we weighting for? A mechanistic model for probability weighting

It’s a common belief in areas such as psychology, economics or finance that people suffer from cognitive biases — systematic deviations from correct or rational behaviour when they make decisions. Read more

Asymptotic estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection counts and their sensitivity to stochastic perturbation

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, modellers from around the world have scrambled to predict the course of its spread, projecting forward from data on past infections and deaths in any region. Such estimates help public health officials and governments to judge the possible risks they face, and, on their basis, many nations have imposed restrictive social confinement measures. Read more