Entries by Mark Buchanan

Asymptotic estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection counts and their sensitivity to stochastic perturbation

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, modellers from around the world have scrambled to predict the course of its spread, projecting forward from data on past infections and deaths in any region. Such estimates help public health officials and governments to judge the possible risks they face, and, on their basis, many nations have imposed […]

Escape from model-land

Policy makers in areas ranging from public health to weather forecasting or economics rely on mathematical models to inform their decisions. As models grow more complex and powerful, one might expect, they should contribute to better decisions.